Whatever any online betting guide may tell you, betting on an NFL game will always be a gamble. The first step to success is realising that nothing is guaranteed.
Despite the unpredictability of every NFL game, you may increase your bankroll throughout any given season by analyzing the odds and understanding the conditions your wager must satisfy to be paid out.
Before betting on any teams, players, or results in NFL games, there are a few things you should be aware of. Here are five things to keep in mind while betting on the NFL.
What is the best way to bet on the NFL?
The most common way to wager on football is “against the spread.” Here we cover three of the best ways to bet on the NFL…
When betting on the NFL…
Do not overreact
Although there are only 256 games in the NFL regular season, it is the sport that receives the most media attention and discussion. Naturally, every week will have a plethora of hot opinions. Once Week 1 is through, you’ll notice this, and Week 2 will bring some responsive point spreads.
Teams that are dominant for one week are usually not as good as they appear. With teams that lose badly, the opposite is true.
The NFL is what it is. The ability level on every team is the same; there isn’t a huge difference between the top and worst clubs. This isn’t college football, where a team like Rutgers, which is utterly lacking in skill, would never stand a chance against Ohio State.
To link to another topic, final results and fundamental statistics might be quite deceptive. You can filter out a lot of the noise and account for opponents using a variety of online resources, including tools and websites. A squad could average 400 yards per game, but it might take 80 plays to get there. 400 yards in 50 plays is far more efficient than that.
To achieve that, we have our NFL power ratings. Along with the plethora of sophisticated stats on the Internet, from PFF to Sports Info Solutions, you can also look at numbers like DVOA on Football Outsiders.
Likewise, when it comes to your outcomes, try not to overreact. It doesn’t imply you have it all figured out and should go crazy the following week just because you went 5-0 one week. By having your dog choose five games at random for you, you have a 3% chance of going 5-0. Remain sober and follow your process.
After a challenging week, try not to get too depressed. Every gambler has awful days, weeks, and months. You’ll also experience really unfortunate days from time to time. It will inevitably take place. Don’t linger. It’s easier said than done and takes practise and expertise to master.
If I used a dart board to choose my NFL wagers for me for the next 20 years, I would estimate that I would hit around 50% of the time across a sizable sample size. Every point spread on either side is roughly a 50/50 proposition because of how efficiently the market works.
Despite the dartboard approach costing me money, I would still come out ahead of most bettors in terms of losses.
How is that feasible if everyone may choose 50% over time? Well, greed, poor bet sizing, and cognitive biases can all contribute to a significant portion of it.
When chasing, which occurs frequently in the NFL, casual bettors are especially vulnerable. For the majority of casual gamblers, it might be too enticing to stay away from Sunday Night Football. And many succumb to the urge to place bets that are much beyond their means after a particularly terrible day to make up for an unfortunate loss or get back to even.
On the other hand, some people also do this following a great winning day and let it all ride to double up on the Sunday or Monday night game. You should preferably place your bets for the day before the day begins unless you are certain that you understand what you’re doing because doing otherwise is likely to result in difficulties for you.
It’s yet another reason why I advise beginners to flat bet until they gain experience, discover they have an edge over time, and can quantify that edge to rationally guide their bet sizing.
In connection with that, avoid drinking and gambling.
Skip the parlays
Casual bettors could find a parlay payoff of 12-1 to be quite alluring, but if you anticipate that all four games will result in coin flips, you’re handing the house an 18.75% advantage. For a standard coin flip wager with odds of -110, the return is only 4.75%.
Please feel free to use a parlay as a lottery ticket for sheer enjoyment if you so desire. But quit immediately if you want to start taking NFL wagering more seriously. Take it from the majority of us who, before discovering better strategies, only ever wagered on exotics. When I initially started gambling in my freshman year of high school, I can still clearly recall losing my shirt on reverse teasers. Cringe.
In some circumstances, parlays can be useful tools for professional bettors to leverage their advantage. But they nearly always only serve to reduce the winnings of less experienced gamblers. Avoid being seduced by the Moneyline parlay tickets with huge payouts that win and are popular on social media. The NFL is difficult enough to win without giving up that much of an advantage.
You may just go to the gas station and get a lottery ticket if you want to play the lottery.
How do you bet on football for beginners?
Opposing the spread in a wager
Take, for instance, a game between the Cleveland Browns and the Houston Texans. An advantage of 3.5 points goes to the Browns. Typically, a team that is favoured by -3.5 will be referred to as -3.5. A minus sign indicates that a team is favoured or anticipated to win, and a plus sign indicates that a club is likely to lose, which may seem paradoxical. You would not want to bet on the Cleveland Browns to win by 3.5 points if you believe they will win but believe it will be a close game.
What is the meaning of Moneyline?
Making a Moneyline wager, where you are just picking a winner or loser, is an alternate choice. For the Browns, -170 is the best betting line. What does that suggest? That implies that if you wanted to make $100 by betting on the Browns to win, you would have to stake $170. The Texans will defeat the Browns, on the other hand, if you are convinced of that. Even if you bet on the Texans against the spread at +3.5, your money will have only roughly doubled. The Texans will pay $160 if you bet on them to win the game outright against the spread. The implication of this is that if the Texans win, you may profit by $160 for every $100 you gamble.
How do Over/Under bets operate?
Consider that you are divided between choosing the Texans or the Browns as the victors, but you are convinced of one thing: this game will be low-scoring. The total amount of points anticipated to be scored throughout the contest is the Over/Under. In the case of the Texans and Browns, it is 52.5 points. As a result, if your research or intuition tells you that this game will most likely end, say, 17-14, you could choose to play the under.
Given that only 22 points were scored in the Browns’ most recent game, this may make sense. However, you can wager on there being more points scored than 52.5 if you anticipate a high-scoring contest. You would have to wager $112 on the under to win back $100 on an Over/Under wager, which typically pays out similarly to a Moneyline winner wager.
Benchmarks versus the spread (ATS)
When examining NFL betting odds, the term “ATS” is frequently used. This refers to a team’s history of success against the spread. Thus, while being classified as having a 1-7 ATS record, the Houston Texans have a 2-6 record. Because they were typically 6.5 points, they only covered the spread once this season, when they defeated the Jaguars 30-14 in Week 5. In Week 9, the Texans defeated the Jaguars once more, but this time by a score of 27-25 and with a 6.5-point advantage; therefore, the Texans failed to cover the betting line.
What should I look for when betting on football?
Millions of gamblers wager on football games every day, making it one of the most popular sports to do so.
Due to its popularity, it is easy to get information that might assist you in placing bets on football games. Several bookies will accept bets, and you may locate information and other resources that can help you place profitable wagers.
But before you risk any money, you need to think carefully and gather knowledge that will help you thrive in the world of sports betting. Here are the four things you should be aware of before making your next wager.
Pick a bookmaker that offers the best chances
Knowing that various bookmakers provide varying odds is important if you’re new to football betting. Odds variations are sometimes negligible, but occasionally one game’s odds may be vastly superior to another’s. For this reason, taking the time to research excellent options is worthwhile and might even rank among your most crucial choices.
In addition to looking for bookmakers with the best odds, you might also want to look for one that provides additional betting options during ongoing games. Some sportsbooks allow bets on a variety of outcomes, including how many points will be scored at halftime, who will score the first touchdown, and even who will receive the most penalty yards. There are odds associated with each of these betting options, and not every bookmaker will offer them. Find the best betting site for you if you’re interested in placing these prop bets.
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Analyse the season’s overall statistics
Football match analysis is comparable to stock analyst work, where they might spend hours analysing data, trends, and statistics. To win your bets, you’ll need to do that as well. Start by going to FlashPicks, a fantastic website where you can discover thorough football statistics to help you place winning wagers.
More information than just individual and team performance is also necessary. This includes how well they’ve performed head-to-head against a certain foe, their performance in recent games, or whether there is a significant difference between how they perform at home and on the road.
Keep records of the past three games
As previously stated, looking at their most recent games can be a good predictor of how they will perform in a future game.
First, it lets you know which players are doing well and which are not. If a defence has allowed a lot of points in the last three games, they may perform similarly in the next one.
On the other side, if a player has been dominating on the field during the previous three games, it’s a fantastic signal that can aid in your decision to wager on a person or franchise.
Teams can benefit from this knowledge as well. Even though it’s not a given, a club that loses three straight games is probably going to lose its fourth as well. The losing streak may also be caused by additional causes like injuries and slumps, but you can assess how they are doing by looking at the trends of their most recent games. You may successfully use this to help you make better judgments.
Let’s say, for illustration’s sake, that the last three games for both teams have ended in losses. It may not be the case that this completely invalidates this tip, despite what you may believe. Houston losing three straight games is different to Philadelphia losing three straight games if they were up against top-tier teams in the league with close scores.
By reviewing the three most recent games, one can learn how each team has performed as well as how they have performed in comparison to other teams.
NFL Betting Guides
Here we have put together a complete list of NFL betting guides, covering NFL betting strategies, the most important numbers in NFL betting, NFL prop betting, and more…