How NFL Prop Betting Works
In this article, we will go through everything you need to know so you can start NFL prop betting.
What is prop betting in NFL?
Many people are familiar with the concept of betting on NFL games, but may not be as familiar with some of the other ways they can bet. For example, one of the most popular sports betting in football is a prop bet, also known as proposition bets.
If you’ve ever seen props being bet on, it may have seemed confusing at first glance. However, if you take a closer look at what prop bets are and how they work, you’ll realize that anyone can make money off of them.
Prop bets, or proposition bets, have become incredibly popular in recent years. While the risks involved with many prop bets are minimal, there are other props that can require an in-depth understanding of a sport before choosing a side bet. It’s not merely the entertainment value that prop bets provide that has made them so widely accepted by professional and amateur sports fans alike. Like we said, prop bets also present opportunities to make money.
Many bettors now like betting on props as much as, if not more than, betting on actual games. One of the most popular prop bets involves the MVP of the Super Bowl. The player who is named MVP almost always comes from the winning team and is usually one of its key players, such as a quarterback or running back.
Prop bets differ from traditional game bets because they involve individual players instead of teams. While game lines cover things like point spreads and over/unders, prop bets cover specific events within the game. For instance, one popular prop bet involves betting on whether or not a quarterback will throw for more than 300 passing yards in a game. Another popular prop bet is whether or not a certain player will score a touchdown in the game. There are many different types of prop bets that can be made in football games and many other sports as well.
How do prop betting odds work?
Prop betting is not about the game’s outcome; it’s about everything else. This is why bettors are allowed to wager on the Super Bowl coin toss and halftime show length. It also explains NFL prop bets on how many times the announcers will say “Gronk” during Patriots games.
Prop betting is all about putting a bet down on something intriguing or unusual that you want to see happen and then watching as your bet gets resolved in real-time.
So how do the odds work for prob bets? Take a look at the example below.
NFL First Touchdown Scorer: Eagles vs. Cowboys
DeVonta Smith (PHI) +300
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) +450
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) +700
DeeDee Lamb (DAL) +1000
In the above example, if you bet $40 on DeVonta Smith, you could win a $160 payout ($120 prop bet earnings + $40 waged).
If you bet the same amount on Gainwell, you can cash out a total of $220 ($180 prop bet earnings + $40 waged).
If you bet $40 on Elliott, you ultimately go home with $320.
Lastly, you get $440 for betting $40 on Lamb.
Prop bets odds aren’t rocket science! As with other sports betting options, you can also find calculators online when trying to figure out a possible payout!
Categories of Prop Betting in NFL
You might be wondering now if there are different types of prop betting and let us tell you about the two: Fun and Skill.
It should be obvious what these two are but we’ll break them down and give you an example.
A fun prop bet is a wager where you don’t need deep research and mathematical calculations. This can go from predicting the results of the Super Bowl coin toss, or the first song to be played during the halftime show. Curious how random prop betting can be? There’s also a prop bet that predicts the brand that will air the first commercial. It’s so freaking exhilarating!
You should know that the fun type of prop bets mostly happen during the Super Bowl as there are more opportunities there than in any other game in NFL.
Moving on to the other category. The skill type. This is the complete opposite of the fun type prop bets as this one requires mathematical calculations and quite in-depth research. It involves statistics that you can’t really have when figuring out the final outcome of a toss coin.
A few examples of skill prop bets are passing yards, touchdown scorers, total touchdowns, and even Super Bowl MVP.
Expected Value and Juice
Expected value is a term that most sports bettors are acquainted with, but few understand what it means. Even fewer people apply it to their wagers. Here’s all you need to know about expected value and why it’s the most crucial aspect in determining your sports betting return on investment.
In simplest words, expected value in sports betting is a method of calculating the probability gap between a bettor’s expectations and the sportsbook’s.
What are some strategies for NFL prop betting?
The first and most important thing to remember when wagering on NFL props is that not all opportunities are created equal. Some props may present an opportunity for a bettor to gain value, while others are not as advantageous. The key is being able to identify the best lines available each week and then developing a strategy for attacking those plays.
We’ll utilize the Most Valuable Player example to show you how to handicap a prop bet. We’ll utilize random players for this one and just pretend they’re all playing the same game.
Sam Darnold +150
Kenneth Gainwell +175
Ezekiel Elliott +250
DeeDee Lamb +300
DeVonta Smith +300
Jarrett Stidham +500
Godwin Igwebuike +700
When looking at the seven players listed above, you need to study each player’s performance and statistics leading up to the Super Bowl.
For Sam Darnold, you need to study his quarterback rating, his mobility, and his mental toughness. What are his football game win stats during the regular season? Did he perform well in the playoffs? How was he when he clashed with opposing teams before?
Additionally, you need to consider their positions. It is a known fact that the MVP title almost always goes to a quarterback, while wide receivers, due to their role being dependent, mostly never bag that title.
This information will help you choose your pick for the MVP title.
Prop Betting in Super Bowl
As we mentioned previously, Super Bowl prop betting is popular in NFL prop betting. Yes, the most entertaining props may be found on the NFL’s biggest Sunday.
Prop betting on the Super Bowl is popular with bettors of all levels since you can wager on everything from a player’s sack total to which side will touchdown first. The following are examples of a proposition bet you can do in NFL:
- Will the coin toss land on HEADS or TAILS?
- How long will the Star-Spangled Banner be sung?
- What color of Gatorade will be poured over the winning coach?
- Who will be chosen MVP?
- How many touchdowns can quarterback X throw? Will the second half end with a safety? Which receiver will receive the most signals?
Whatever type of a bettor you are, Super Bowl props have something for you!
What is the difference between a prop bet and a futures bet?
Futures and prop bets are commonly confused, but they are not the same thing. A future bet is a wager on events that will occur in the future and generally involves statistics that have effects on the games themselves. These are wagers placed prior to the start of the season on any event, such as which team will win the World Series or their conference.
Just like in prop betting, one of the most popular futures markets is the Super Bowl. Every NFL team will be given odds to win that season’s Super Bowl long before Week 1 begins. Favourites, such as the Patriots, open the season from 5/1 to 10/1, while the league’s least favourites, like the Browns, start at 150/1 or 200/1. The others will fall somewhere in the middle. Futures, like any other odds, will change over time.
Check our guide on how futures betting works in NFL!
Do prop bets push?
Because many bets are over/under markets, it’s uncommon for proposition bets to finish in a push, with your capital returned. As a result, the bet has a binary final outcome: it either wins or loses.
There will always be a separate bet on ‘no goalscorer’ if you bet on the next goalscorer. Every angle will be covered by the bookmaker.
What are other types of prop betting in the NFL?
The most popular sort of proposition bet hosted by betting sites is a player prop. You can bet on a single player scoring a goal or touchdown at any point during the game, for example. Do you have faith in a player’s throwing yards in a major NFL game? That has a market as well.
A single NFL game can have dozens of different player props, most of which are centered on the major players. Some examples are:
- Total passing yards by a player (over/under)
- Interceptions by a player (over/under)
- Total rushing yards by a player (over/under)
- Total receiving yards by a player (over/under)
- Over/under on total player touchdowns
- Scorer of touchdowns at any moment
- Total tackles and assists by a player
- Total tackles and assists by a player
The brilliance of NFL player prop betting is that you can win before the game even ends.
Team Prop Bets
You can wager on a variety of team prop bets in addition to individual player stats like passing yards and goals scored. Team props bets usually have a good selection of wagers being offered by betting sites just like player props:
- Winning margin
- Team to score the first touchdown
- Race to points
- Team to score last
- Team to commit 1st turnover or fumble
- Which team will win the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th quarter
- Team to score 2-3 times unanswered
- Total team passing yards (over/under)
- First offensive play of the game
Making a Live Proposition Bet
In any sport, live betting is common, and at your preferred sportsbook, you’ll discover action on matches that are already in progress. These prop bets allow you to place a wager on each drive, at-bat, kick, or a faceoff. In-play betting will be accessible for NFL and college football, for example:
What will be the outcome of the next drive?
Field Goal +500
The live odds are constantly changing. It’s crucial to take advantage of them as soon as they’re available, or you risk missing out on some exciting activity.
Does parlaying prop bet work?
Prop bets can be parlayed in the same way that futures bets or outright wagers like the Moneyline can.
A parlay bet is a combination of single bets. Each individual bet must come in to win your parlay. You can also use a method to cover numerous outcomes by combining your bets.
Parlay insurance is also available at most online sportsbooks. You can still win on your other picks if one leg of your parlay loses.
Where can I place a prop bet?
You can find a lot of sports betting sites that offer betting props! Just make sure that you do your own research on which one gives you the most advantage. Betting props can be rewarding if done correctly! Check out the sites below to see if you find the betting site of your dreams:
- Sports Betting
We use and trust BetUS for our prop bets, where you can get a 125% sign up bonus with our code JOIN125.
How NFL Prop Betting Works – The Conclusion
The popularity of prop betting has been growing over time. The starting point for understanding why some people love prop betting is really understanding what it is. The best way to get started with NFL prop betting is to find a website that offers these types of wagers and learn from there. There are many different sites out there, so you should be able to find one that fits your needs.
The whole point of a prop bet is to take the traditional game being played up a notch. On an NFL Sunday anyone can place a bet on the final score, but if you’re looking for something different from the game then sports betting through the use of props may be worth the extra time and effort. Prop betting is more than the final score.