How NFL Win Totals Betting Works

Table of Contents

If you’ve been researching sports betting, you’ve most likely come across the terms live betting, prop bets, futures bets, parlay betting and NFL win totals betting.

In this article, we will go through a few things you should know so you can understand how NFL win totals betting works!

What is NFL Win Totals Betting?

In sports betting, win totals bets are classified as “futures” wagers.

Futures bets, as the name implies, are wagers on events that will not be “settled” until a later date. Win totals bet, for example, is based on the number of victories a team is expected to win throughout the next regular season of that particular sport. This type of betting relies greatly on performance and statistics, unlike a prop bet where you decide on the most unusual things like the Toss Coin.

Win totals betting is very different from point spread bets or even prop bets.

The wagers are accessible before the start of the regular season, necessitating some research on the side of the bettor in terms of a team’s possibilities before making a selection.

If you’re someone who likes to do your research and really think about how things might play out before betting on anything, then you should definitely consider NFL win totals betting. With win totals betting, you’re not just looking at individual games and trying to decide whether one team is going to beat another. Instead, you’re thinking about how many wins a team is going to have over the course of an entire NFL season. It’s like buying stock in teams instead of investing in individual games.

Note: Win totals betting depend on season win totals and your ability to predict if a team construction can win more or less of the lines generated by bookmakers.

How does NFL win totals betting lines work?

The most common explanation of win totals is to say that they are bets on whether a team will go “over” or “under” the number of victories it accumulates in the regular season. Both offline and online sportsbooks will set a projected win total for each team, which will be based on factors such as the strength of schedule and recent performance.

Bettors will then have the option to bet on whether a team will finish with more wins than that number, or fewer wins than that number. For example, if the books set a win total for the Dallas Cowboys at 9.5 wins for the upcoming season, bettors can wager on whether Dallas will finish with more (over) or less (under) than that total.

A win totals bet is technically graded as a “push” if the team finishes exactly on the number set by the book. That scenario would result in all money wagered being refunded to bettors who wagered on either side of the proposition.

When can you wager on NFL win total bets?

It can be said that win totals betting in betting and NFL betting specifically is one of the most favourite futures bet.

The concept is pretty straightforward: You’re betting on whether a team will win more or less than the total number of games that oddsmakers have set. For example, the Patriots’ 2017 win total is 12, meaning you would bet over if you think they’ll win 13 or more games and under if you think they’ll win 12 or fewer. The odds for each side are typically separated by half-point increments such as -120 (bet $120 to win $100) and -110 (bet $110 to win $100), which are standard for all sportsbooks. If the line is set at nine wins, for example, you could bet over at -130 and under at even money. If a line is at 10.5 wins, it’s possible to see over at -110 and under at -120. If a line moves to 10 after being 10.5, you might see the over go from -110 to -105 and the under from -120 to -115.

So when can you wager on one of the most popular NFL betting options out there?

Unlike other NFL bets, win total bets are only available to be wagered on before the start of an NFL season.

What are some strategies for NFL win totals betting?

An NFL season goes as fast as it comes so you need to be fully prepared before a season even starts so you can place your NFL bets calmly and enjoy the experience. Below are some strategies that we think you can use to do just that.

Sportsbook Shopping

We always encourage shopping around and looking for the best online sports betting site that can offer you the best odds. In a nutshell, when betting projected win totals, one is evaluating the projected number of wins that is set (likely to have low-to-no variance across most sportsbooks) and its corresponding odds (more likely to have variance across sportsbooks).

Let’s say Bookmaker A sets the win total for the Jaguars at 6.5. The odds for under 6.5 wins are -110, while the odds for over 6.5 wins are +110. Meanwhile, Bookmaker B has under 6.5 wins at -120 odds and over 6.5 wins at +120 odds.

In this case, a bettor who wants to bet under 6.5 wins should go to Bookmaker A (because -110 odds give a better payoff than -120), while someone who wants to bet over 6.5 wins should go to Bookmaker B (since +120 odds offer a better payout than +110).

It is about finding the best odds out there and betting on those. This practice is also known as line shopping! Take note of that!

Recency bias

Recency bias is not a term only found in investments, it is also involved in any activity that involves Moneyline bets. In simple terms, recency bias is the concept of allowing the recent outcomes of a particular game to affect your decisions on your wagers. Recency bias affects NFL futures betting a lot, especially NFL season win totals betting.

Recent performance and statistics can play a vital part in predicting whether a team will under or overperform but you should always thread carefully.

If a team thrashes an opponent the week before the game you want to bet on, there’s a good chance the line will be inflated due to the public’s reaction to such a crushing win. It’s vital to keep in mind that NFL betting is an ongoing activity and win totals betting can only be placed before the start of a regular season. A lot of things can still happen during the time in between. While sharp bettors can learn from the past, they aren’t perfect forecasters of the future.

Take the following example:

The 2021 NFL season playoffs saw the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers falling short, despite the latter winning the previous Super Bowl, however, they are now projected by sportsbooks to have the highest win totals in the NFL this year. Last year’s Super Bowl winners Los Angeles Rams are somewhere just behind these two.

See how it is so easy for lines to change and they’re not just based on very recent performance so consider studying at least as far as 4 seasons to the past.

Recency bias also affects other sportsbook betting available, like the point spread bets where you bet on the margin of victory in a game. Because it is important that you can predict how many victories or points scored you need to cash out on your wager, making sure you are basing your wager on good research and not just the thrill of a recent victory will help you a lot.

Watch off-seasons closely

As we said, a lot of things can still happen between seasons that will affect the current NFL season win totals.

If we’re being honest, we all know the performance of a team during the season greatly depends on offseason roster moves. Players come and go during the offseason, coaches can be replaced and personnel change regularly. That’s a universal truth that even sports face. This uncertainty to a degree will affect each NFL team.

This is one of the things sportsbooks betting value and uses when figuring out the season win totals lines.

Ultimately, you need to study the organizational plan of teams as they go through the off-season. Did something change? Are they doing a good rebuild of their teams? How good are their new players?

Analyze the team’s schedule

In betting for season win totals, you need to look closely at a lot of things and that includes the NFL team of choice’s schedule.

Are the Kansas City Chiefs facing formidable opponents in a row? Will they be able to surpass the line allotted to them? Can they win games according to your wager?

Are the Green Bay Packers going to last enough to give you a winning bet? Will they win fewer games?

You should be prepared to answer questions like this. And to answer, you will be studying the team plays of the opponents along with the season win totals of those teams too.

Win totals betting is more than which team wins, it’s about how many wins they can do.

Where to wager on win total bets

Win total bets are quite popular and you can find them on almost all sportsbook betting sites out there. Here are some sportsbook sites you can check out! Keep in mind that this is a list of names that are found in conversations online and are not our own personal choices. It really pays to judge for yourself!

BetOnline
BetWay
Sports Betting
MyBookie
22Bet
Everygame

For our NFL Win Totals betting we use BetUS, who are giving a 125% sign up bonus when you join with our code JOIN125.